Macro Trends

In February 2026, the on-chain ecosystem exhibited more pronounced structural divergence amid price pressure. On-chain activity did not contract in tandem, but instead became further concentrated on high-frequency and high-efficiency networks. Solana maintained its dominance in high-frequency activity, while Base and Polygon continued to expand. Arbitrum saw a recovery in activity, but its capital retention and value capture weakened. Ethereum shifted from net outflows to significant net inflows, reinforcing its role as the primary settlement layer and a key hub for macro asset deployment. On the BTC side, the price pullback pushed short-term holders broadly into unrealized losses, with profit-taking cooling and sell pressure still concentrated among short-term positions, while the long-term holder structure remained intact. At the sector level, AI Agent, supply-side shocks, and institutional DeFi narratives coexisted. Short-term returns were driven by structural catalysts, while mid-term allocation continued

The article leverages data points such as the surge in oil prices due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, inflation expectations, and central banks' 36,000-ton gold reserves to reveal the divergence between Bitcoin and gold in the early stages of the crisis.

In February, the overall crypto market showed a weak trend, with notable outflows from BTC ETFs. Major blockchains remained stable throughout the month, with Solana leading by a wide margin at over 100 million daily transactions. Ethereum recorded 13.34 million unique active addresses, maintaining its second-highest level in history. TradFi trading volume on Perp DEXs surged to $47.3 billion, largely driven by Hyperliquid’s HIP-3. The Web3 sector completed 46 funding rounds totaling $986 million, with the top 10 projects accounting for $793 million—three major deals were led by Tether. Meanwhile, Web3 security incidents declined significantly month-over-month, though smart contract vulnerabilities remained the primary risk source.

The text shifts the perspective from the Middle East to the global stage, systematically assessing the energy dependence, reserve life, and social/political tipping points of Japan, South Korea, India, Southeast Asia, Europe, the United States, and China.

Gate Research Institute: Over the past 24 hours, BTC briefly climbed above $71,000, but following a sharp drop and quick rebound during the U.S. market session, it settled back near $69,300. ETH rapidly declined from $2,070 to $2,010 and remains in a recovery phase. Altcoins showed weakness, with most lagging behind BTC, while the Fear & Greed Index remains in the extreme fear range. HUMA, NAORIS, and ARIA saw gains of 50.13%, 39.38%, and 29.02%, respectively, fueled by AI-related narratives. Additionally, Oracle’s earnings beat expectations, driving its share price up nearly 8% after hours, and both Hyperliquid and Circle announced significant product updates.

This article analyzes the shift in VC strategy from being judgment-driven to being driven by the ability to win deals. It highlights how scaled institutions like a16z, leveraging massive capital, full-spectrum services, and economic moats, are enabling capital-intensive giants such as OpenAI and Anthropic to prevail.

Gate Research: Between 2025 and 2026, PayFi is evolving from a crypto payment tool into a next-generation payment and financial engine, with stablecoins achieving scale in high-frequency and cross-border payments and demonstrating clear efficiency and cost advantages over traditional systems. As Web2 and Web3 continue to converge, institutions such as Visa, PayPal, and emerging neobanks are becoming key gateways to mainstream adoption, while the combination of stablecoins, real-world assets (RWA), and AI is shaping PayFi’s foundational architecture by enabling automated, always-on settlement, asset mobility, and risk management. Looking ahead to 2026, regulatory clarity, scalable asset tokenization, and the maturity of AI-driven financial systems will be the primary determinants of PayFi’s competitive landscape and long-term barriers.

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%. The central bank made it clear that it will further adjust its monetary easing stance if the economy and inflation develop as anticipated. This article provides a comprehensive review of the Bank of Japan's policy statement, examining its views on the wage-price mechanism, real interest rates, and the projected trajectory of future rate hikes. It also explores how this policy shift could affect macro-level liquidity and financial markets.

Gate Research Daily Report: On December 22, BTC stabilized and rebounded quickly after a sharp pullback, currently consolidating in the 88,800–89,000 range; ETH also recovered swiftly after plunging to around $2,775 in the previous drop; GT shows a rebound-from-lows structure with a mildly bullish bias; and RAVE became the standout performer with gains of up to +84.45%. Meanwhile, an address poisoning scam resurfaced, resulting in a crypto user losing $50 million in USDT; Hilbert Group acquired Enigma Nordic for $25 million to further expand its institutional crypto trading strategy; and a Tether executive–linked entity’s acquisition of Northern Data’s Bitcoin mining business has drawn market attention.

The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and renewed purchases of short-term Treasuries have been interpreted by markets as a form of “QE-lite.” But does this truly mark a turning point for risk assets? From the perspective of financial conditions, the yield curve, and duration structure, this article explains why current policies do not yet constitute genuine financial repression. It then connects global trade imbalances and the Triffin dilemma to explore the medium- to long-term case for Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value under a potential dollar depreciation path—and where the real inflection point may lie.

Gate Research Daily Report: On December 19, the crypto market pulled back broadly after the initial CPI-driven surge, with risk appetite continuing to cool. BTC spiked above $89,000 before retreating, maintaining its bearish structure and oscillating at lower levels; ETH showed weak rebound momentum, consolidating under pressure in the $2,800–3,000 range. Altcoin sentiment remains subdued, with the market focused primarily on proactive de-risking and defensive positioning. In terms of hotspots, low-cap tokens like JELLYJELLY and NBLU bucked the trend and gained strength amid speculative fervor, while IR rose on new listings and exchange-related activity. Meanwhile, the impending expiry of $23 billion in BTC options, Lido DAO's application for a $60 million ecosystem budget, and JPMorgan's conservative outlook on stablecoin growth potential have emerged as key variables influencing both short-term and medium-term expectations.

Gate Research Weekly Report: The crypto market remains under pressure overall, with BTC consolidating in the $85,000–$86,000 range and the bearish structure intact, while ETH has dipped below $2,900, probing around $2,800, and continues to show short-term weakness; risk appetite for altcoins is subdued, with stablecoin supply contracting slightly and Gas fees staying at extremely low levels. H, GHST, and ACT bucked the trend with gains, driven by post-airdrop capital inflows, incentive adjustments, and momentum from the AI narrative, respectively. This week, active traders on Hyperliquid continued to decline, highlighting intensifying competition among Perp DEXs; BitMine added over 100k ETH again, pushing its total holdings close to 4 million; Strategy kept accumulating BTC, surpassing 670k in total holdings. RedotPay, ETHGAS, and YO closed new funding rounds, drawing attention to payments, the Gas market, and decentralized social sectors. Over the next 7 days, ZRO, H, and MBG face significant token unlocks—w

In November 2025, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization trended downward overall, as weak buying momentum, rising macroeconomic uncertainty, and cooling risk appetite jointly constrained any meaningful rebound. Stablecoin market capitalization across public blockchains remained highly concentrated, with Ethereum accounting for more than half of the total; fund flows pointed to increasing sectoral divergence, as chains such as Arbitrum and Starknet recorded notable net inflows. Meanwhile, the prediction market continued to expand rapidly, with Opinion’s monthly trading volume surging and quickly emerging as a third major player competing with Polymarket and Kalshi. The Web3 industry completed 53 financing deals totaling $2.67 billion, a sharp decline from October, signaling a phase of contraction and structural tightening.

Gate Research Daily Report: On December 17, the crypto market continued its recovery, with major assets showing signs of structural rebound. Bitcoin stabilized above the $85,000 level and rebounded to trade around $87,500, where short-term momentum has improved but remains constrained by medium-term resistance. Ethereum recovered to the $2,950 area after its recent decline, though the pace of the rebound has been relatively moderate. Overall market sentiment remains cautious, but rotation within major assets is becoming increasingly evident. On the thematic front, PTB surged sharply amid growing narratives around Bitcoin application-layer expansion and institutional adoption. LIGHT gained strength on expectations tied to Lightning Network and RGB-related technical progress, while ARC rallied on renewed interest in AI agent infrastructure and developer-centric narratives. On-chain data show that short-term Bitcoin supply continues to shift toward long-term holders, while the slowdown in stablecoin growth signa

Gate Research Daily Report: Despite a brief rebound attempt in the crypto market, prices have failed to decisively reclaim key resistance levels. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has continued to weaken and gradually retreated to its core supply–demand zone, while ETH fell below the important psychological level of USD 3,000. Technical breakouts drove ACE up 22% over the past 24 hours, while FHE surged 98% in the same period, with its recent rally primarily driven by Chainlink’s newly launched FHE privacy bridge. Visa announced the launch of a stablecoin advisory service. Ripple revealed plans to expand RLUSD to Ethereum Layer 2 networks. Circle announced the acquisition of Axelar’s initial development team, Interop Labs, along with its intellectual property.